This also drives the erosion of the liberal world order, e.g. It is the first time since the end of the cold war that a major power was able to disrupt the European security order and get away with it. What does it mean for the global order and countries like China, Russia and the West?Īt a broader level, the war spells an end to the Pax Americana. Other countries, such as Myanmar, might be cut out from supply chains entirely. The continued conflict could also lead to a significant reallocation of supply chains, benefiting some countries like Bangladesh, India or Vietnam. This could lead to the rise of regional blocs, and may require smaller Asian nations to take sides, something they have tried to avoid in the past. Even if neither Europe nor Asia are not willing to decouple from China, there still is a drive for diversification and a push for protectionism in both regions. There are two significant mid- to longer-term implications for Asia. What could the medium-term impact of the Ukrainian conflict be and how does it change the contours of geopolitics and geo-economics in the region? However, they are also major importers of Russian arms, and as the conflict costs more men and material, there could also be a reduction in Russian arms exports to the region. Both China and India have signed special deals for cheaper energy coming from Russia. That being said, some countries have benefited from the conflict.
It is likely that Europe will see a recession, and that will have a negative impact on Asian exporters. I anticipate this food insecurity will lead to greater regional instability and riots due to scarcity and shortages. The prices of energy and food have dramatically increased and will most likely affect the food security of 1.6 billion people around the world. While some governments across the Asia-Pacific consider the conflict in Ukraine as mainly a European war that the West should deal with themselves, the immediate impact of the conflict on the Asia-Pacific is greater than most imagine. What is the immediate impact of the Ukraine crisis and how is it likely to play out in the Asia-Pacific region?
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